Shenzhen Airport (000089) Investment Value Analysis Report: Three Phases of Overlapping Pengmen Open
Three-cycle merger, the company’s restructuring is on the rise: 1) during the expansion of production capacity, the construction of the satellite hall and the three rails will increase the company’s current production capacity by 60%; 2) the policy bonus period, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area will enhance the company’s international hub competitiveness, internationalPassenger flow is expected to rise to the level of 10 million; 3) During the non-traffic inflection point period, non-traffic revenue has gradually decreased by 27% in the past three years, and then gradually bottomed out. The deduction rate for international passenger flow growth has gradually increased, and the duty-free business will continue to increase.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019/20/21 will be 26/21/22 times the PE, and it will be upgraded to a “buy” rating.
Enjoy Shenzhen’s development dividend and move towards a world-class hub.
Relying on Shenzhen’s special location advantages, Shenzhen Airport has developed strongly, and the number of passengers exploded in 20188.
2% to 49.35 million people, ranking fifth in the country.
Among the four first-tier cities of North, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, Shenzhen’s per capita GDP is 190,000 yuan, ranking first, but the number of passengers per passenger (1.
9 times) lower than the other three cities (2.
3 times), improving potential breakthrough.
The beneficial strategic positioning has been increased from the main airport to the international hub. The company’s international passenger flow has maintained an annual growth rate of about 30% in the past few years. Last year, the international passenger flow was 4.58 million, accounting for 9%, and the CAGR in the next 3 years is expected to reach 25%.
The potential of capacity planning, the release of demand potential, and the boom in supply and demand have re-established the company’s long-term upward trend.
Although the company’s current operation has reached near capacity loss, the capacity under construction is advancing reasonably: in the short term, the satellite hall under construction and the approved third gear are expected to be commissioned in 2021 and 2022, respectively, to ensure worry-free capacity;Look, the T4 terminal is expected to start around 2025, supporting the company’s goal of exploding 80 million passengers in 2030.
The construction period of the company’s satellite hall and three runways is expected to be earlier than the three runways of Hong Kong Airport?
Completed in 3 years, the preemptive throughput launch can take over passenger flow from Hong Kong Airport, adding growth momentum.
Supply-side throughput is gradually releasing overlapping Shenzhen civil aviation travel demand growth, and the company has been on an upward trend for a long time.
The Bay Area plans to release policy dividends, and the company accelerates the construction of an international hub.
Compared with New York, San Francisco and Tokyo, the per capita GDP of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area and the number of international civil aviation trips are less than half, which has growth potential.
The plan of the Greater Bay Area clearly proposed that “the competitiveness of Shenzhen Airport’s international hub” may mean that Shenzhen Airport will enjoy the policy bonus of the Civil Aviation Administration for allocating more international moments.
In the summer and autumn of 2019, the average daily international flight volume of the company increased by 22%, and the growth rate increased by 10%. At the same time, the international 南宁桑拿 passengers of Q1 increased by 27%, the fastest growth rate of the top ten airports.
The increase in international passenger flow will also increase the company’s aviation and tax-exempt business income. We estimate that increasing the international passenger flow ratio by 1 pct will increase the current net profit by about 1.
The non-aerospace business is embracing an upward turning point, international passenger flow growth and contract expansion are about to be re-signed, and tax exemption is gradually increasing.
In 18 years, the company ‘s non-airline business (excluding tax exemption) has gradually decreased by 27%, which has dragged down the overall performance. We believe that the company ‘s non-airline business has ushered in an inflection point: 1) Businesses with tax will re-sign insurance 北京夜生活网 contracts, and business will return to growth;And the value-added revenue ratio dropped to 9%. If the continued decline in the future continues to weaken the overall performance impact; 3) The impact of outdoor advertising demolition was fully released last year, and advertising revenue may return to 10% + growth this year.
The company’s current exit / entry tax deduction rate is only 20% / 35%, which is lower than the international 35?
At the 40% level, the re-signing of contracts in the next year is expected to increase the deduction rate and expand the growth of international passenger flow. The company’s tax-exempt business will continue to grow rapidly.
Risk factors: Declining demand for civil aviation travel; diversion of surrounding hub airports; rising costs; lower-than-expected tax exemption.
Investment suggestion: Considering the continuous growth of the company’s passenger flow, the increase in the proportion of international passengers driving the growth of aviation and tax-exempt income, and the adjustment of other non-airline business fully returned to growth., Need to accrue 0.
69 ppm contingent debt, we adjust the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 0.
41 yuan (previous forecast was 0.
38 yuan), corresponding PE is 26/21/22 times, it is estimated to be lower than Shanghai, Baiyun Airport 35?
40 times PE, upgrade to “Buy” rating.