Shentong Express (002468) Third Quarterly Report Review: Gradual profit margin pressure capacity expansion continues

Shentong Express (002468) Third Quarterly Report Review: Gradual profit margin pressure capacity expansion continues

Event: Shentong Express announced the third quarter report of 2019: the company achieved operating income of 156 in the first three quarters.

56 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.

0%; net profit attributable to mother 11.

0.6 billion, down 31 each year.

35%; net profit deducted from non-mothers 10.

49 trillion, down 16 a year.

89%.

Q3 achieved operating income of 57.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

73 trillion, a reduction of 63 a year.

2%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 2.

67 trillion, a decrease of 38 a year.

8%.

The business volume continued to grow rapidly, and the decline in single ticket revenue expanded: 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3 companies’ business volume growth rates were 45.

2% / 48.

6% / 52.

The growth rate of business volume picked up quarter by quarter, and the company’s market share reached 12 in 19Q3.

6%, a month-on-month increase of 1.

5 points / year promotion 2.

At 1 point, the company actively seized market share in the gradual period.

Due to the fierce competition on the right side, the company mainly adopts a low-price competition strategy.

8 yuan, down 13 each year.

1% / QoQ decreased by 8.

3%, taking into account the difference in the direct sales rate of the transshipment center, the Q3 single ticket revenue under comparable calibers has decreased by about 15%, of which the M7 / M8 / M9 single ticket revenue multiple growth rates are -15% /-16% /-15%.
Gross profit margin continued to grow and short-term profitability was under pressure: 19Q3 company’s operating costs increased by +40.

4%, which is lower than the growth rate of business volume, reflecting the company’s continuous optimization of single ticket costs. The main measures include improving transfer efficiency and increasing self-operated sports car lines.

19Q1-Q3 company’s comprehensive gross profit 杭州夜网论坛 margin was 14 respectively.

7%, 13.

0%, 8.

9%, Q3 gross margin ten years -6.

9pts / ring ratio-4.

1 point.

During the period, the company’s Q3 fee subsidy2.

9%, ten years +0.

6pts / ring ratio -0.

2 points, on the basis of increasing the direct sales rate, the cost is well controlled.

On the single ticket profit, the non-net profit of Q3 single ticket deduction is 0.13 yuan, down by 0 every year.

19 yuan / ring down 0.

11 yuan, the company’s short-term profitability continued to be under pressure.

Production capacity continues to be spent, and long-term attention has been paid to operating improvements brought by Ali’s shareholding: in the first three quarters, the company’s capital expenditures (purchasing fixed assets, intangible assets, etc.).

100 million, mainly invested in houses, machinery and equipment, vehicles, etc.

In the first three quarters, the company is under construction7.

63 billion, an increase of 233 in the initial period.

76%.

With the improvement of the company’s transshipment center direct operating rate and continuous capital expenditure, the overall productivity has achieved a rapid climb. At present, the company is still struggling for business volume, matching the capacity stage, and operating under pressure.

With the deepening of Ali’s cooperation with the company, the company’s information technology level and management capabilities have improved.

Investment suggestion: Through the increase of self-operated rate, Shentong Express vigorously develops R & D budgets, optimizes the logistics network, improves future business volume and single ticket cost end, and in addition, transforms the company’s cooperation with Ali, and the company is expected to gradually take a differentiated path. In the futureProgress is worth looking forward to.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 15.

4/17.

3/20.

300 million, corresponding to the current PE of 22.

8/20.

3/17.

2x, maintain the company’s “Buy-A” rating.

Risk warning: fierce market competition, leading to large-scale price wars in the industry; cooperation with Ali is less than expected; labor and other costs have risen sharply.