Zoomlion (000157) 2019 Interim Report Comment: Rapid sales growth, overlapping costs, control performance exceeded expectations
Event: The company foresees net profit attributable to mother in the first half of the year 24?
USD 2.7 billion, followed by an increase of 171.
42%, of which Q2 achieved net profit attributable to mother 14?
1.7 billion, an increase of 188.
Opinion: The performance exceeded expectations, the sales of core products increased rapidly, and tight control of expenses helped Q2’s profit accelerate growth, and raised its profit forecast.
The long-term growth of the construction machinery industry is worry-free.
① In May 2019, the investment in real estate development increased for many years11.
20%, an increase of 1 over 2018.
② In May 2019, the 10-year growth rate of infrastructure investment2.
60%, an increase of 0 from 2018.
At 81pct, the shortcomings of capital construction are obvious; considering the new regulations for special debt, we expect that under the conditions of caution, neutrality and optimism, the contribution to the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2019 will be 0.
61 points, 1.
71 points, 3.
③ Based on the above-mentioned real estate and infrastructure investment situation, and then consider the replacement and export needs, judge the construction machinery industry growth and worry-free.
The company’s core product sales have grown rapidly, coupled with strict cost control, the performance growth has exceeded expectations.
① Although the growth rates of construction cranes and concrete machinery improved in the second quarter of 2019 compared with the first quarter, they continued to grow rapidly, benefiting from driving forces such as upgrading and environmental protection requirements, and are expected to gradually lead the excavator.
② Tower crane benefit policy dividend continued to grow rapidly.
The “Outline of the Development of Construction Industrialization” states that prefabricated buildings will account for 20% of new construction in 2020 and more than 50% in 2025. The company will be the first to benefit from this policy bonus as a tower crane leader. It is expected that Q2 revenue of tower crane will continueQ1 is doubling the trend. At present, new orders are full, and the high growth momentum is expected to remain unchanged.
③ Strictly control expenses to boost profit margin.
The company’s gross profit margin in Q1 2019 is 30.
94pct, at least +4.
68 points; net interest rate 10.
88%, +2 from the previous quarter.
14pct, +5 per year.
05pct; Net profit is expected to continue to rise in the second quarter of 2019.
Investment suggestion: The company will implement the repurchase plan in less than two months and gradually repurchase3.
900 million shares, accounting for 4 of the company’s current total share capital.
97%, fully showing confidence.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent from 2019 to 2021 will be 40.
73 and 59.
810,000 yuan, an increase of 98 in ten years.
85% and 20.
25%; corresponding to EPS 0.
63 and 0.
76 yuan, corresponding to PE 10.
35 times, maintaining the highly recommended level.
Risk reminder: Infrastructure investment falls short of 厦门夜网 expectations, downstream fixed asset investment is significantly extended