Financiers are still cautious in buying and buying

Financiers are still cautious in buying and buying
Original title: The financier is still cautious to buy and buy, and the net financing exceeds at most this big bull stock!Pay attention to these changing signals!  Source: Every time the bull’s eye A-share market is strong and short, the financier has opened a buy-buy-buy model, but from the data point of view, the financier is still somewhat cautious when buying and buying.  In the morning of February 21, Zhengjin Company announced the data of the margin trading market as of February 20.According to “Daily Economic News” reporter statistics, compared with the beginning of February, there has been a large-scale account opening of margin financing and securities lending. Although the number of investors participating in financing transactions has increased significantly, the data on per capita transaction volume and per capita debt limit have only slightly changed.  As of the close of February 20, the number of investors with debt securities and margin trading in the two cities was 122.10,000 people, 89 per capita denied.310,000 yuan.  In the recent half month, Liangrong only opened about 3,000 new accounts. Let’s take a look at the outline of Liangrong trading after the Spring Festival.  On February 3, the first day of the market after the Spring Festival, the market fell sharply due to the epidemic.The purchase amount of financing in the two cities on that day was 486.7.2 billion yuan, the amount of securities sold is 1.8.1 billion yuan, only 148,740 investors participated in the two financial transactions, not as good as before the Spring Festival-January 23 is the last trading day of the Year of the Pig, 245,121 investors participated in the two financial transactions.  But from February 4th, investors participating in the two financial transactions have returned to pre-holiday levels.A total of 245,741 investors participated in the two financial transactions that day, basically the same as January 23.On February 5, investors involved in the two financial transactions exceeded the 250,000 mark and reached 250,705.New highs were set again on February 6 and 7, reaching 270,131 and 280,777 respectively.But then it remained at 250,000 between February 10 and 14?280,000 interval changes.On February 17, this Monday, the number of Liangrong traders approached the 300,000 mark for the first time, reaching 298,764.On February 18, 19, and 20, the number of people participating in the transaction stabilized at 330,000+, which were 335067, 336009, and 335036.  In other words, the current participants of the two financial institutions increased by nearly 200,000 on the opening day of the Spring Festival on February 3.But the participants are not mainly new investors.Because according to the same data from Zhengjin, the individual investors on February 3 were 516.60,000, compared to 516 on February 20.There are only 90,000 new investors who are expected to open the Liangrong trading account in half a month.  Source: According to the transaction data, from February 17, starting from February 17, for four consecutive trading days, the transaction volume of Liangrong’s single day exceeded 100 billion, and reached on February 17, 18, 19, and 20 respectively.1074.9.3 billion, 1123.6.6 billion, 1151.8.7 billion and 1241.1.9 billion yuan.  If calculated on the basis of the transaction amount per capita, the merger will take place on February 3, but the transaction amount per capita will be 32.840,000 yuan.Although the heat of Liangrong has picked up since then, until February 19, the per capita amount of Liangrong’s transactions has been 320,000?Hovering in the range of 350,000.It wasn’t until February 20 that the per capita financial transaction amount increased to 37.50,000 yuan, an increase of only 12 on the earlier February 3.79%.  Judging from the ratio of Liangrong transactions to the total market transactions, this figure was 9 on February 3.41%, compared to 11 on February 20.62%, an increase of 2.21 digits.  The increase in per capita debt was even smaller. On February 3, a total of 1,184,234 investors had resistance to the financial crisis. On February 20, there were 1220104, an increase of 35,870 from February 3, and the per capita debt was 86 on February 3.450,000 yuan, compared with 89 on February 20.310,000 yuan, an increase of 3.31%.  It can be seen that the two financial transactions are still dominated by stock games, and financiers are even very cautious in using leverage even in the hot market.As much as possible, the amount of financing available is not unlimited, subject to many restrictions such as the market value of the collateral provided; after restructuring, after the lessons of 2015, financiers realized that they were more careful when using leverage.After all, even if the trend is right, stepping on “thunder” in the short term may bring risks to yourself.  The most obvious feature of the two financial markets after the holiday: There is another characteristic of the two financial transactions of the Shenzhen-Shenzheng and Shanghai-Weak markets after the Spring Festival. The financing balance of Shenzhen has increased significantly faster than that of Shanghai.  Data on financing purchases in Shanghai since February 3 Source: Oriental Fortune Choice. From the figure, it can be seen that from February 3 to February 20, there was a net reduction of funds and a net inflow of 14 in the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 6 trading days.The trading day only increased by 157.9.5 billion.  Source of data on financing purchases in Shenzhen since February 3 Source: Oriental Fortune chose ho Shenzhen to have net financing for three trading days at the same time, with a range of financing balances from 4,535.800 million to 4978.2.8 billion yuan, an increase of 442.4.8 billion yuan.Compared with the Shanghai stock market financing surplus increased by 284 over the same period.5.3 billion.  This trend of deep, strong and weak Shanghai is naturally related to the bullish movement of the ChiNext.Due to favorable factors such as new regulations on refinancing and rejuvenating the country through technology, the GEM continued to surge after the Spring Festival, and the GEM index has increased by 15.51%, the Shanghai index rose by only 2 during the same period.12%.  From the perspective of the net purchase amount of financing from February 3 to 20, the Tesla concept, the 5G concept, and software stocks have led the way.Guoxuan Hi-Tech of Huawei concept stock happened 10.4.1 billion financing net purchases, and its pre-holiday financing balance was only 14.1.6 billion, 73 occurred on February 3-20.1.9 billion financing to buy, 62.7.8 billion financing repayments, with a net purchase amount of up to 10 during the period.4.1 billion, financing surplus rose rapidly 73.52%.  But in fact, Guoxuan Hi-Tech has only increased since February.33%; its January increase has reached 71.48%, it is not surprising that the growth slowed in February.It can be seen that even if the market is soaring, it is 南京夜网论坛 not easy to make money through leveraged trading. At least chasing the rise will bear certain risks.  However, choosing a funder in the Ningde era will be fortunate.From February 3 to 20, a total of 135 occurred in the Ningde era.1.6 billion financing to buy, 125.9.5 billion financing repayment, net net inflow of financing9.4.1 billion.Since November of last year, the Ningde Times have seen monthly gains of more than 20%, and an increase of 22 from February 3 to February 20.46%, which brings generous returns to funders.  It is worth mentioning that at the same time, there are still 785 stocks in the two cities with a net replacement of financing funds, of which the consumer stocks in the previous period were the main ones.  Guizhou Moutai Daily K-line map Moutai, Guizhou, China National Travel, Yonghui Supermarket, Wuliangye all appear in the top 10 list of net financing repayments.In Maotai, Guizhou, from February 3 to 20, a total of 63 occurred.3.4 billion financing purchase, 79.2.1 billion financing repayments, net financing reduction of 15.8.7 billion, ranking first in the two cities.Although the stranded wire has increased by 5 since February 3.71%, but as the first high-priced stocks in the two cities, Maotai’s limelight in Guizhou is completely covered by small and medium-sized enterprises.  Take history as a mirror: The three signals should focus on the withdrawal of funds from the anti-risk sector into growth stocks when the A-share style conversion range is very obvious.But based on history, leveraged trading can bring richer profits and possibly more terrible alternatives. Even in a strong market, investors need to remain cautious.  High point of 2015 financing balance2.266 trillion appeared on June 18, and the earlier June 12 high of 5178 points lags behind.In general, the limits used in the analysis may be biased, so it may be more accurate to review the data using May 28, 2015.  On May 20, 2015, the financing balance of the two cities exceeded RMB 2 trillion for the first time in history.From the first breakthrough of 1 trillion yuan on December 19, 2014, to the first breakthrough of 2 trillion yuan on May 20, 2015, it took only 100 trading days.On May 28, 2015, the two cities fell sharply, with the Shanghai index falling by 6.5%, more than 500 stocks fell, and some new stocks even completed the “bungee jump” from the limit to the limit.However, due to the huge increase before, the phenomenon of large-scale step-out liquidation after half a month did not occur that day.  However, this was already a precursor to a major stock market adjustment half a month later. According to data released by the Securities and Securities Corporation at that time, on May 28, 2015, there were 3.66 million individual investors and 6,531 institutional investors.Compared with the benchmark on May 27, 2015, 22 institutions were opened in one day, 1.10,000 individual investors.Compared with the benchmark on April 30, 2015, the number of newly opened accounts reached 15.630,000.  On May 28, 2015, the number of investors involved in the transaction was 50.530,000.The transaction volume of the two financial institutions on that day was 3,217.5.7 billion yuan, with an average transaction amount of 67 per investor.680,000 yuan.At the close of the day, there were 126 investors who had mixed up.990,000, accounting for 34 of all Liangrong investors.63%.Based on the balance of the two cities and two financial institutions on the day 2.0776 trillion yuan calculation, 126.The per capita debt of 990,000 investors was 163.600,000 yuan.  Judging from the above data, in May 2015, new leveraged funds poured into the market.In order to prevent risks, previous supplementary brokerages have adopted an increase in the margin ratio and restricted financing to open positions. There are also some stocks that have been suspended for financing purchases because of excessive financing purchases, but they still cannot block the influx of financiers under the money-making effect.pace.  Earlier, on January 19, 2015, the Securities and Futures Commission investigated the dual-finance business of brokerages and transformed the three leading brokerages of CITIC, Haitong, and Guotai Junan into replacements, resulting in a sharp decline in the Shanghai stock index that day.70%.  Image source: Photograph.com history has never been simply repeated. At present, the number of investors participating in the two financial transactions in a single day, the per capita debt and other data are only about 60% of the level on May 28, 2015, but investors stillIt is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the two financial data in order to respond.  First of all, there are a large number of investors who open accounts in the two financial days, which is related to the epidemic situation.According to the reporter of “Daily Economic News”, some brokerages can already open margin financing and margin trading accounts online, but there are still some brokerages that require account opening on the spot in order to prevent risks, which may partly prevent investors from opening accounts.Once the number of Liangrong investors opened accounts, per capita resistance and other data explosive growth, the market will remain vigilant.  In fact, in order to prevent risks, most brokerages will begin to tighten leverage when there is too much market, such as requiring investors to increase the maintenance ratio, or reduce the proportion of deductible margin of certain varieties, etc., in order to limit the financingAvailable financing.But as long as investors expect the market growth to cover funding costs and then have the incentive to increase positions, then if there is more than two news of brokers tightening leverage, this is often one of the important signals of change.  The time window is very important. In June 2013 and June 2015, there were two major adjustments in A shares, both of which are important assessment periods for deposits and loans of financial institutions.At this time, the turmoil of the market capital side often has a greater psychological impact on investors than the rest of the time and requires careful observation.  In short, although the Rongrong data may lag behind, it is still an important weathervane in the market.